The PMD Seasonal Winter Forecast has triggered fresh discussion after viral reports claimed Pakistan was heading toward an extremely cold winter. In a breaking clarification, the Pakistan Meteorological Department has firmly dismissed these claims, stating that scientific data or official forecasts do not support them.
According to the PMD, the circulating reports on social and mainstream media are based on assumptions rather than verified climate indicators. In my experience, such claims often gain traction during the winter, but PMD officials have stressed that there is no evidence of an extreme winter scenario developing nationwide.
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PMD Seasonal Winter Forecast: Official Position
In its latest statement, the PMD confirmed that its December–January–February (DJF) seasonal outlook shows near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall, while temperatures are expected to remain slightly above normal in most regions of Pakistan.
The forecast is prepared using advanced regional and global climate prediction models supported by the World Meteorological Organization. From my observation, these systems are designed to detect abnormal cold patterns early, and no such signals have appeared so far.
Observed Weather Matches PMD Forecast
PMD data recorded up to now shows that actual weather conditions are fully aligned with the seasonal forecast. December has seen below-normal rainfall nationwide, with only limited light to moderate precipitation in western and northwestern areas.
Temperatures, meanwhile, have remained above average, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan. I believe this consistency between forecast and observations strongly weakens claims of an approaching severe winter.
No Signs of Extreme Cold, Says PMD
Addressing public concern directly, PMD officials stated that the ongoing winter pattern does not indicate extreme cold spells. While short cold waves are a normal part of the season, there is currently no atmospheric setup suggesting prolonged or dangerous cold conditions.
In my experience, extreme winters usually show repeated cold intrusions early in the season. Such patterns have not been observed this year, according to PMD analysis.
Karachi Update: Cooler Nights Expected
Separately, the PMD has issued a short-term update for Karachi. The city may experience a further drop in temperature, with minimums possibly reaching around 9°C over the coming weekend.
PMD spokespersons explained that earlier expectations of a stronger cold wave were limited due to upper-air troughs blocking Siberian winds. However, chilly nights and early mornings are expected to continue for a few days.
PMD Warns Against Unverified Weather Reports
The department has urged the public, media, and stakeholders to ignore unverified weather claims and rely only on PMD’s official announcements. Officials emphasized that spreading inaccurate information can cause unnecessary panic and poor planning.
I strongly recommend following daily PMD bulletins rather than social media speculation, especially during sensitive seasonal transitions.
Final Update
The PMD seasonal winter forecast confirms that Pakistan is expected to experience a normal winter, not an extreme one. Current weather observations fully support the official outlook, and there is no scientific basis for claims of unusually harsh cold.
For accurate and timely updates, the PMD remains the only reliable authority on Pakistan’s seasonal weather outlook.
